SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF SYNERGISTIC COLLABORATIVE SCENARIOS TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE NUCLEAR ENERGY SYSTEMS

摘要

The paper presents results of the study on the role of collaboration among countries towards sustainable global nuclear energy systems. The study explores various market shares for nuclear fuel cycle services, possible scale of collaboration among countries and assesses benefits and issues relevant for collaboration between suppliers and users of nuclear fuel cycle services. The approach used in the study is based on a heterogeneous world model with grouping of the non-personified nuclear energy countries according to different nuclear fuel cycle policies. The methodology applied in the analysis allocates a fraction of future global nuclear energy generation to each of such country-groups as a function of time. The sensitivity studies performed show the impacts of the group shares on the scope of collaboration among countries and on the resulting possible reactor mix and nuclear fuel cycle infrastructure versus time. The study quantitatively demonstrates the synergistic approach to nuclear fuel cycle has a significant potential for offering a 'win-win' collaborative strategy to both, technology holders and technology users on their joint way to future sustainable nuclear energy systems. The study also highlights possible issues on such a collaborative way.