BAYESIAN CALIBRATION OF SAFETY CODES USING DATA FROM SEPARATE-AND INTEGRAL EFFECTS TESTS

摘要

Large-scale "system" codes for simulation of safety performance of industrial facilities such as nuclear plants may contain parameters whose values are not known very accurately. In order to be able to use the results of these simulation codes with confidence, it is important to learn how the uncertainty on the values of these parameters affects the output of the codes. New information from tests or operating experience is incorporated into safety codes by a process known as "calibration," which reduces uncertainty in the output of the safety code, and thereby improves its support for decision-making. Modern analysis capabilities potentiate very significant improvements on classical ways of doing calibration, and the work reported here implements some of those improvements. The key innovation has come from development of safety code surrogate model (code emulator) construction and prediction algorithms. A surrogate is needed for calibration of plant-scale simulation codes because the multivariate nature of the problem (the need to adjust multiple uncertain parameters at once to fit multiple pieces of new information) calls for multiple evaluations of performance, which makes calibration very computation-intensive in principle. Currently, use of a fast surrogate makes the calibration processes used here with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling feasible. Moreover, most traditional surrogates do not provide uncertainty information along with their predictions, but the Gaussian Process (GP) based code surrogates used here do. This improves the soundness of the code calibration process. Results are demonstrated on a simplified scenario with data from Separate and Integral Effect Tests.