MODEL-BASED HRA METHODOLOGY: PROCEDURES FOR QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS

摘要

Despite the advances made so far in developing human reliability analysis (HRA) methods, many issues still exist. Most notable are; the lack of an explicit causal model that incorporates relevant psychological and cognitive theories in its core human performance model, inability to explicitly model interdependencies between influencing factors on human performance, lack of consistency, traceability and reproducibility in quantitative analysis and human error probability (HEP) estimation. These issues amongst others have contributed to the variability in results seen in the application of different HRA methods and in cases where the same method is applied by different analysts. In an attempt to address these issues, a framework for a "model-based HRA" methodology has been recently proposed which incorporates strong elements of current HRA good practices, leverages lessons learned from empirical studies and the best features of existing and emerging HRA methods. It is aimed at enabling more credible, consistent, and accurate qualitative and quantitative HRA analysis. This paper presents the step by step procedure guidelines required by an HRA analyst for conducting a comprehensive qualitative analysis using the model-based HRA methodology. When properly applied, these procedure guidelines should result in a qualitative analysis that is detailed, consistent, traceable, reproducible and properly documented. Therefore, it would aid in addressing the issue of variability seen within the field of HRA when the same method is applied by different analyst.