CASE STUDY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SEISMIC PRA USING FRANX

摘要

This paper will describe the experience of adapting data from an IPEEE-era seismic PRA model into a current state of the art software program. The original seismic PRA used for this study was built in the 1990s and was structured for the SHIP seismic hazard integration program. The seismic hazard curves and system fragility curves from that model were loaded into a beta version of the FRANX program adapted for seismic events. SHIP uses a convolution approach for combining the information from the hazard and fragility curves, whereas FRANX is scenario based. Conditional core damage probabilities resulting from system failures at the various ground acceleration levels were initially used from the original seismic PRA to allow a comparison of the quantified results using the two methods. The objectives of this study were to 1) compare the relative numerical and importance results from the two methods, 2) estimate the amount of effort required to build the FRANX seismic hazard and fragility models, 3) estimate the effort required to build a live conditional core damage probability model from the plant full power internal events PRA model, and 4) estimate how updates to the seismic information and more realistic plant PRA information will impact the overall results.