THE RESEARCH OF INSURANCE INCOME FORECAST BASED ON WAVELET ANALYSIS

摘要

This paper proposes a kind of combination forecast model based on the wavelet analysis. First, the insurance income time series is decomposed under a multi-scale by using the Mallat algorithm. So the approximate (low frequency)component and the detail (high frequency) component under the corresponding scale are obtained. Then, the trend and cycle are distilled from the decomposition and modeled separately. After that the stochastic item is modeled. Finally,the superimposition of forecasts result can forecast the original insurance income. Through the contrast of forecast result with the tradition forecast model ARIMA by the data of Chinese insurance income, it indicates that this model makes full use of the existing information and it is more precise in forecast.