Optimal Technology Refresh Strategies for Strategic DMSMS Management using Ranking and Selection

摘要

The effects of Diminishing Manufacturing Sources and Material Shortages (DMSMS) can be excessively costly if not addressed in a timely manner. A strategic DMSMS management method that seeks to minimize the overall life-cycle cost of a system, e.g. an aircraft or ship, is presented. The goal is to select an optimal scheduling of technology refreshes over a fixed lifetime, using lifetime buys as the mitigation option. A DMSMS specific cost model is constructed that accounts for costs of multiple, diverse parts in a system and multiple technology refreshes. This study shows the efficacy of using a ranking and selection method to identify the optimal technology refresh strategy for a complex and stochastic cost function dependent upon varying refresh costs. A visual model is presented which provides the ability to quickly compare other feasible strategies.