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Estimation of exponential random graph models for large social networks via graph limits

机译:通过图限制估计大型社交网络的指数随机图模型

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Analyzing and modeling network data have become increasingly important in a wide range of scientific fields. Among popular models, exponential random graph models (ERGM) have been developed to study these complex networks. For large networks, however, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of parameters in these models can be very difficult, due to the unknown normalizing constant. Alternative strategies based on Markov chain Monte Carlo draw samples to approximate the likelihood, which is then maximized to obtain the MLE. These strategies have poor convergence due to model degeneracy issues. Chatterjee and Diaconis [1] propose a new theoretical framework for estimating the parameters of ERGM by approximating the normalizing constant using the emerging tools in graph theory—graph limits. In this paper, we construct a complete computational procedure built upon their results with practical innovations. More specifically, we evaluate the likelihood via simple function approximation of the corresponding ERGM's graph limit and iteratively maximize the likelihood to obtain the MLE. We also propose a new matching method to find a starting point for our iterative algorithm. Through simulation study and real data analysis of two large social networks, we show that our new method outperforms the MCMC-based method, especially when the network size is large (more than 100 nodes).
机译:分析和建模网络数据在广泛的科学领域变得越来越重要。在流行的模型中,已经开发了指数随机图模型(ERGM)来研究这些复杂网络。然而,对于大型网络,由于未知的常量常量,这些模型中的参数的最大似然估计(MLE)可能是非常困难的。基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗绘制样品的替代策略以近似似然,然后最大化以获得MLE。由于模型退化问题,这些策略具有较差的收敛性。 Chatterjee和DiaConis [1]提出了一种新的理论框架,用于估计ERGM的参数来估计使用图形论坛限制的新出现工具近似于归一化常数。在本文中,我们构建了一个完整的计算程序,以实际创新为基础。更具体地,我们通过对应的ERGM的图形限制的简单功能近似来评估可能性,并且迭代地最大化获得MLE的可能性。我们还提出了一种新的匹配方法,以找到我们迭代算法的起点。通过仿真研究和两个大型社交网络的实际数据分析,我们表明我们的新方法优于基于MCMC的方法,尤其是当网络大小大(超过100个节点)时。

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