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Estimation of exponential random graph models for large social networks via graph limits

机译:通过图限制估计大型社交网络的指数随机图模型

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Analyzing and modeling network data have become increasingly important in a wide range of scientific fields. Among popular models, exponential random graph models (ERGM) have been developed to study these complex networks. For large networks, however, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of parameters in these models can be very difficult, due to the unknown normalizing constant. Alternative strategies based on Markov chain Monte Carlo draw samples to approximate the likelihood, which is then maximized to obtain the MLE. These strategies have poor convergence due to model degeneracy issues. Chatterjee and Diaconis [1] propose a new theoretical framework for estimating the parameters of ERGM by approximating the normalizing constant using the emerging tools in graph theory—graph limits. In this paper, we construct a complete computational procedure built upon their results with practical innovations. More specifically, we evaluate the likelihood via simple function approximation of the corresponding ERGM's graph limit and iteratively maximize the likelihood to obtain the MLE. We also propose a new matching method to find a starting point for our iterative algorithm. Through simulation study and real data analysis of two large social networks, we show that our new method outperforms the MCMC-based method, especially when the network size is large (more than 100 nodes).
机译:在广泛的科学领域中,对网络数据进行分析和建模已变得越来越重要。在流行的模型中,已经开发了指数随机图模型(ERGM)来研究这些复杂的网络。但是,对于大型网络,由于未知的归一化常数,这些模型中参数的最大似然估计(MLE)可能非常困难。基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗的替代策略抽取样本以近似该可能性,然后将其最大化以获得MLE。由于模型退化问题,这些策略的收敛性较差。 Chatterjee和Diaconis [1]提出了一种新的理论框架,用于通过使用图论中新兴的工具(图极限)来近似归一化常数来估算ERGM的参数。在本文中,我们通过实际创新构建了基于其结果的完整计算程序。更具体地说,我们通过简单函数逼近相应的ERGM的图极限来评估似然性,并迭代最大化似然性以获得MLE。我们还提出了一种新的匹配方法,以找到我们的迭代算法的起点。通过对两个大型社交网络的仿真研究和真实数据分析,我们证明了我们的新方法优于基于MCMC的方法,尤其是在网络规模较大(超过100个节点)的情况下。

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