Risk element transmission prediction model of grid infrastructure project capital flow

摘要

Since participants involved in a grid infrastructure project are a community of interests, we should not focus only on a party's internal risk. Based on risk element transmission theory, this paper studies risk transmission process of capital flow among the participants involved in a grid infrastructrue project. This paper indentifies the inventory time and accounts receivable as risk elements based on the capital flow diagram, predicts the value of inventory time risk element by using gray system model, analyzes accounts receivable risk element which follows Poissionian distribution and under the influence of inventory time, and thereby establishes a model which describes the risk transmission along project capital flow. Combined with practical an example of the grid infrastructure project, this paper quantitatively analyzed the transmission of funding risks among enterprises involved in a grid infrastructrue project, and confirmed the validity of the model.