A method to assess COVID-19 infected numbers in Italy during peak pandemic period

摘要

COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) is a pandemic disease diffused throughout the world. COVID-19 is usually identified by applying Reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) analysis on swab tests. The high rate of diffusion of the disease caused many problems related to the managing part of limited healthcare resources such as Intensive Care Units (ICUs) services. Assessing the real number of infected as well as early identification of the more infected zones have been defined as a relevant issue to treat pandemic. COVID-19 infected citizens are identified by swab test applied on suspected cases as well as people that have been in touch with affected ones. For these reasons, recognised numbers of COVID-19 affected patients are significantly lower than real ones. We investigate the number of COVID-19 infections and the number of deaths, through Italian regions by comparing these data with respect to diseases caused by similar viruses. We assess several infections having a higher rate of dissemination than the ones currently measured. We focus on the characterisation of the pandemic diffusion by estimating the infected number of patients versus the number of death. We believe that our model can support the healthcare system to react as COVID-19 infection rate increases.