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Risk-constrained scheduling and offering strategies of a price-maker hydro producer under uncertainty

机译:不确定性下价格制水电企业的风险约束调度和提供策略

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This paper presents a stochastic mixed-integer linear programming (SMILP) approach to maximize total expected profit of one price-maker hydro producer in a pool-based electricity market. Head dependence, commitment decisions, discharge ramping, startup costs and forbidden zones are all effectively handled in our approach. Uncertainty about the competitors' offers is adequately represented by residual demand curves (RDCs) scenarios. The management of risk is suitably addressed by conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) to provide the efficient frontier, i.e, the solutions set for which the expected profit may not be augmented without enlarging the variance of profit. Appropriate offering strategies to the pool are also developed, consisting of supply functions built for different risk levels. A representative cascaded hydro system with 7 reservoirs is considered to analyze and compare risk-neutral vs. risk-averse results.
机译:本文提出了一种随机混合整数线性规划(SMILP)方法,以在基于池的电力市场中最大化一家定价水电生产商的总预期利润。在我们的方法中,可以有效地处理人员的依赖,承诺决定,排放量增加,启动成本和禁区。剩余需求曲线(RDC)场景充分体现了竞争对手报价的不确定性。有条件的风险价值(CVaR)可以适当地解决风险管理问题,以提供有效的边界,即在不扩大利润差异的情况下不能增加预期利润的解决方案。还开发了适当的池供应策略,其中包括针对不同风险级别构建的供应功能。考虑使用具有7个水库的代表性梯级水力系统来分析和比较风险中性与风险规避的结果。

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