Modeling Safety in Utah

摘要

In 2010 the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials published a new transportation safety guide, the Highway Safety Manual (HSM), to provide transportation professionals with a single authoritative document to aid in estimating safety impacts. State Departments of Transportation (DOTs) have taken a variety of approaches to implement the information presented in the HSM in their states. The Utah Department of Transportation has taken a proactive approach to implementing the HSM. Research has been, and continues to be, conducted to utilize the HSM procedures in the state, while also developing independent analysis methodologies to model safety. The purpose of this paper is to present the methodology for an independent model developed in Utah for highway safety mitigation that utilizes hierarchical Bayesian statistical methods and geographic information system tools to identify hot spot locations and to begin the process of evaluating and identifying mitigating factors to help improve safety statewide. The model incorporates predictive methods of highway safety analysis and allows transportation officials to proactively improve the safety of the transportation system. As state DOTs adopt such a methodology for safety mitigation, and take a proactive approach to implementing safety in their state, they can begin to maximize the benefits resulting from highway safety investment.