Study on Corn Futures Contracts based on Tmperature Index-Case Analysis in Harbin

摘要

The uncertainty of natural temperature is the biggest risk in agricultural development;the futures contracts can become the key solution to avoid risks of agriculture production. Corn is temperature sensitive crop and prefer warming atmosphere. Thus, the temperature should be the key factor affecting corn production in the city, Harbin. Consequently, temperature index becomes one of the tools to measure output and futures of corn. This study has constructed and used the model of relationship between temperatures and output of corn, in order to use regression analysis and hypothesis test by the software, Eviews. It has been proved that to using temperature index to measure futures contracts is practical. Accordingly, to construct corn futures contracts;to design the contents of those futures contract;to price by using Monte Carlo equation.