WREF2012: CALCULATING A NATION'S 'ECONOMIC' SOLAR POTENTIAL-A GENERAL METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS FOR THE UNITED STATES

摘要

As the cost of solar photovoltaic equipment and installations continues to fall, solar PV electricity becomes increasingly competitive with utility-supplied electricity. Just how much electricity could be "economically" supplied by solar PV is an important question for energy-focused businesses, and for policy makers considering a mix of energy technologies in which to invest, and through which to meet renewable energy and CO2-related targets. This paper presents a general methodology for calculating this amount, and the results for the United States. In particular, the paper presents the steps for calculating solar PV competitiveness, the point(s) at which an electricity consumer can save money by switching from utility-supplied electricity to distributed solar PV electricity. Solar competitiveness therefore depends on both the cost of solar PV electricity and the prevailing retail price of electricity. Because both of these vary by geography, this calculation must be performed on a market-by-market basis. For the U.S. calculation, the analysis combined local-level irradiation data from the United States National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) with local-level electricity prices from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to analyze the entirety of U.S. electricity consumption (approximately 4 trillion kWh). The results show that U.S. solar PV demand will pass through an inflection point as the installed cost of distributed PV drops from $5/watt to $3/watt. At $5/watt installed cost, approximately 8 billion kWh of U.S. electricity could be economically served by solar PV, equivalent to 5 GW of solar PV capacity. At $3/watt installed cost, approximately 440 billion kWh of U.S. electricity could be economically served by solar PV, equivalent to 300GW of solar PV capacity, nearly 80x the present U.S. capacity.