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Effect of parameter uncertainty on water distribution systems model prediction

机译:参数不确定性对配水系统模型预测的影响

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Water distribution quality model requires inputs from many sources. The input parameters for the model can be broadly classified into two groups; hydraulic model parameters and water quality model parameters. The input parameters for the hydraulic model are nodal demands, pipe diameter, pipe length and pipe roughness. The input parameters for the water quality model are global bulk and wall decay coefficients. The uncertainties involved in these input parameters propagate into the model predictions and cause the model outputs, the nodal pressure and chlorine residual uncertain. This paper considers six different networks based on their different layouts to examine the impact of uncertain input parameters on model prediction. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) has been used examine the impact. Results show that for most of the networks global wall decay coefficient and demand have largest influence on the model prediction.
机译:配水质量模型需要许多来源的投入。模型的输入参数可以大致分为两类:水力模型参数和水质模型参数。水力模型的输入参数是节点需求,管道直径,管道长度和管道粗糙度。水质模型的输入参数是整体体积和墙体衰减系数。这些输入参数涉及的不确定性会传播到模型预测中,并导致模型输出,节点压力和氯残留量不确定。本文基于六个不同的网络,考虑它们的不同布局,以检查不确定的输入参数对模型预测的影响。蒙特卡罗模拟(MCS)已用于检查影响。结果表明,对于大多数网络,全局壁衰减系数和需求对模型预测的影响最大。

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