A risk-based, real-tim e landslide warn ing system is being developed for Provincial Road 303 near the epicente r of the 2008 W enchuan Earthquake. The essence of the warning system is to warn the traffic or construction teams of the risks in different parts of the road caused by an imminent storm or ongoing rainfall event. The terrains along the road are divided into cells based on types of hazards (landslides, rockfalls, or debris flows) and geomorphic considerations. Digital elevation models for the cells have been c onstructed based on results of remote sensing and local engineering surveys. A rain-gauge network has been established to measure real time rainfall distributions over the cells, c onsidering changes in elevation and wind direction. The occurrence prob ability of landslides in each cell in response to a recorded rainfall event is evaluated using standard reliability methods. Based on such failure probabilities, it is possible to produce a real-time risk map along the road. The warning levels for different cells are then determined separately by further considering their respective total potential loss of lives and expected mortality rate.
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