The paper describes probabilistic analyses perf ormed as part of a large expansion to an existing cem ent manufacturing plant. A raft supported by drilled shafts was proposed for the project, but dur ing installation, significant slurry and concrete loss began to occur indicati ng numerous voids existed in what was previously considered com petent limestone bedrock. Since the possibility of voids, especially at the shaft tip, could serious reduce the shaft capacity, a probabilistic Monte Carlo 3D finite element simulation was proposed for the most heavily loaded raft foundation. The purpose of the sim ulation was to determ ine the probability of adverse perf ormance, giving guidance as to whether any remedial measures (e.g., additional structural elements or thickened raft) might be required.
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