A Complex Adaptive Systems Approach to Develop Basin-scale Optimal Management Strategies for Water Resources Systems

摘要

Sustainable basin-scale management of water resources is challenged by the rapid increase in population and the expected changes in future climatic conditions. Population and economic growth has caused increases in water demands which, along with climate variability, may reduce the availability of water resources. Management strategies often employ supply-side management for water scarcity through the design and implementation of large infrastructure improvements. The stresses on water system could alternatively be reduced by conservation-based policy developments, including outdoor water use restrictions and household-level adoption of water smart technologies. An adaptive management approach may achieve high levels of water conservation most effectively. For example, policy officials may campaign for water conservation measures during drought conditions only, or inter-basin transfers may be implemented by anticipating the timing of inflows to the reservoirs. This research will explore adaptive basin-scale management strategies by modeling an urban water resources system as a Complex Adaptive System. Agent-based modeling is used to represent policy and consumer water use model, and are coupled with a reservoir system model. Policy officials can select pumping and inter-basin transfer operations and or water use restrictions, and consumers can select water use behaviors based on policy developments and pricing information. The proposed adaptive modeling framework will be applied to a case study, and optimal management strategies will be developed to minimize energy costs for different climatic conditions.