Evolution analysis of Industrial efficiency and Its Tendency Forecasting in China

摘要

Industrialization is the necessary way and important milestone for transferring from agricultural society to modern society. China is a typical developing country and has both the traits of common developing countries and specific characters of its own. Under the circumstance of global competition and absence of resources in worldwide, the efficiency of industry became the focus for society sustainable development. Subjected to the limitation of resources, how to obtain maximum outputs and use minimum inputs, i.e. efficiency, becomes a pivotal issue for countries in worldwide. A comprehensive method, named DEA, was introduced in this paper to measure the efficiency of regional industrial efficiency in China from 2002 to 2009. Base on the DEA calculation results, we can identify the ranked first three regions, Heilongjiang, shanghai and Guangdong. Then, the linear regression method was applied to forecasting the developing tendency of the three regions' corresponding outputs. The calculation results can provide significant information about industrial reform for regional management in China.