A METHOD FOR THE ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION OF GENE SEQUENCES AND FOR THE FORECAST OF AN EMERGING VIRAL STRAIN

摘要

It is described a process for the analysis of the evolution of gene sequences representative of a biological structure and for the prediction of the prevailing gene sequence in the future, comprising: - the acquisition of a collection of sequences disclosed in a predetermined geo- graphical region of observation; - from the collection of sequences, the derivation of the corresponding strings of characters of an alphabet representing the properties of the sequence; - the determination of the mutual Rohlin distances between each possible pair of strings, which provides a representation of the distribution of the sequences in a sequences space; - the hierarchical aggregation of neighboring sequences in a predetermined number of clusters indicative of the families of sequences that have circulated in the sampling period and in the geographic region of observation, and - the identification, in the most recent sampling period, of an emerging family of sequences distinct from the sequences of the dominant cluster, these sequences are considered precursors of the family of sequences prevailing in at least a period of time in the future. The formulation of an influenza vaccine is based on the analysis of the time evolution of a collection of sequences representative of the influenza viruses spread in a region of observation in a defined time interval, and on the identification of an emerging sequence.