Simulation and scenarios analysis of urban carbon emissions: Case of Beijing city

摘要

When treating one city as the boundary condition, the amount of urban carbon emissions equals to the net consumption of the primary and secondary energy multiplied by their respective carbon emission factor. In Beijing city, the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions caused by energy consumption has increased from 77 million ton in 1990 to 145 million ton in 2009. The emission coefficient of CO2 has decreased from 2.85 ton per ton of standard coal equivalent in 1990 to 2.2 in 2009, which fluctuated upon 2.2 in recent years because of the adjustment of energy structure and the increasing energy consumption in the meanwhile. The CO2 emission per capita has increased to 8.2 ton and the intensity of CO2 emission has decreased to 1.19 ton per ten thousand GDP. Simulation and scenarios analysis shows that the peak value of CO2 emission could reach to 210∼260 million ton during 2030 to 2040 in Beijing city. And CO2 emission could decouple from economic development under the implementation of low-carbon strategies and developmental goals. In conclusion, carbon emission in building and transportation section should be the key points for carbon emission reduction in the future. To achieve a sustainable and low-carbon city, it is crucial to have an integrated planning of the urban energy systems by means of improving the total efficiency of the whole urban energy systems, encouraging the development of suitable low-carbon energy technology, and decreasing the energy load demands in the meanwhile.