Correlation analysis of carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth in eastern, central and western China

摘要

Along with the continuous progress of modernization, China's economy maintains a comparatively high growth rate, above 8% from 2000 to 2010. Generally speaking, one country or region's GDP growth rate is roughly proportional to growth rate of energy consumption. As the economy grows continuously, the sustaining increase of energy consumption causes serious greenhouse effect by CO2 emissions. This paper estimates the CO2 emissions coefficients of coal, oil and natural gas. By establishing econometric model, we analyses the relationship between CO2 emissions and GDP in eastern, central and western China. The differences of the three regions' regression models are interpreted by energy structure analysis. After the energy consumption flexibility analysis, it is found that China's economic growth in the near future must depend on the growth of energy consumption. It is conclude that the energy structure must be changed and low-carbon energy should be developed vigorously, in order to reach the aim of cutting carbon emissions as economy grows continuously in China.