An optimized grey model and its application in predicting thefinancial investment to science and technology

摘要

The grey model GM (1, 1) is one of the important components in the grey systems theory system. According to the modeling mechanism of GM(1, 1) model, based on the analysis of the flaws of the existing grey model GM(1, 1) the method which consists of the most superior initial value, which is solved in the constraint that all components of GM(1, 1) modeling sequence X(1) fit smallest error sum of squares and the optimized background value was proposed. The improvement of existing GM (1, 1) model was made. The novel GM (1, 1) was constructed and it was compared with the existing three kinds of GM (1, 1) models in the modeling precision. The research findings indicate: Compared with the existing GM (1, 1) models, the modeling precision (simulation precision and forecast precision) of the novel GM (1, 1) model is the highest.