A study on the influence models of the correlation between nutrition factors and the breakout of algal bloom

摘要

The current situation of researches on lake eutrophication prediction models was discussed in this paper, including four categories of forecast methods in terms of models in mechanism, time series method, structured analysis method and systemative method. The characteristics and applied status were represented systematically. Additionally, this paper carried on a tentative exploration of the establishment of influence models on the correlation between nutrition factors and the breakout of algal blooms with mathematics on the basis of current researches. The single factor correlation analysis of macronutrients including TN(mg/L), TP(mg/L), NO3-N(mg/L), NO2-N(mg/L), NH4-N(mg/L), micro-element Fe and TN/TP, NH4-N/TN, NO3-N/NH4-N, NO3-N/NO2-N, DIN/DON, 11 factors totally, was performed and the result indicated that the relation between single factors and algae biomass was multinomial correlation. Through backward stepwise regression analysis three factors including DIN/DON, NO3-N and NO3/NH4 with smaller interdependency were suggested to be removed to realize the optimization of modelling, providing important reference to the follow-up studies.