Characteristics of Chinese economic cycles: A wavelet analysis of Chinese GDP series

摘要

With the help of the advantage of wavelet analysis which represents signals local features both in time and frequency domain, we analyze the situation and summarize the characteristics of cyclical fluctuations of Chinese GDP growth rate series from 1953 to 2009. Two stable periods of economic fluctuations, respectively 5a and 11a, are identified through wavelet transform contour maps and variance curves about yearly series of Chinese GDP growth rate, and the period 5a plays a more important role than 11a. According to the amplitude evolution figures about two stable periods of economic time series, we parse the amplitude changes and evolutionary trends of Chinese economic development. The amplitude of economic cycle changes sharply before 1978, and its range is very wide. While the amplitude of economic cycle changes smoothly after 1978, and its range decreases gradually. In general, the trend of amplitude fluctuations of Chinese economic cycles becomes more and more smoothly and slows down gradually in pace with time, and the stability of economic growth increases step by step.