Dynamic influence analysis of the CPI on ship maintenance hourly rate based on VAR model

摘要

Based on the yearly data from 1979 to 2009, the VAR model between CPI and ship maintenance hourly rate is established on the results of correlation, stationarity and cointegration test of the samples data. And then the Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition are applied into the dynamic analysis of the VAR model established in this paper. The empirical results show that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between them. The CPI is the granger causality of the changes of hourly rate, and the reverse conclusion is also existed. A plus response would appear in time when the CPI changes and this influence has a long effect. The hourly rate is influenced by its inertia greatly in short-time, then the contributive percent from the CPI ascends rapidly to the degree which is equal to the degree of hourly rate inertia. The response of CPI to the change of hourly rate has one year lag, and the degree is also relatively insignificant to the inverse response. In the long term, the trace of hourly rate is ascending and fluctuating owing to the impact relations between CPI and hourly rate.