Understanding the dynamics of planning and providing accommodation services for people with Intellectual Disability

摘要

Accommodation support for people with Intellectual Disability is a major component of public expenditure in the Australian welfare setting. Along with the ageing of this population over the past three decades there have been major shifts in the philosophy of care which have had impact upon funding policies and the allocation of resources. The signing of the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities has prompted a review of current programs and more comprehensive planning for improvements. System dynamics modeling software was used to understand the implications for service provision of the ageing of this group. A community prevalence of approximately 0.8% was established, with a baseline of approximately 0.1% of the population requiring formal accommodation support and this was incorporated into the expected changes which will occur in the Australian population. Modeling of changes in level of intellectual impairment and levels of dependency in four age groups over the next forty years predicts a rise in the numbers of middle aged and older adults with Intellectual Disability needing accommodation support. Changes in the levels of demand in each form of accommodation were estimated by 'what-if experimentation with changes in eligibility criteria. There will be a substantial rise in the intensity and demand for state funded disability accommodation, as the clients themselves and their parents age, with little change in the need for aged care accommodation.