In the last fifteen years risk analysis techniques have been used with increasing frequency to assess the relative safety of dams throughout the world, including the Corps of Engineers [1] and the Bureau of Reclamation [2]. This analysis differs from earlier methods in that it provides a more quantitative assessment of the probability of failure and the associated consequences. This quantification is attractive so dams within a given inventory can be compared to one another, known as portfolio risk analysis, although difficulties can arise when the mathematics behind the risk values are not well understood. This paper will describe some of these difficulties and actions that can be taken to address them.
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