RE-EXAMINING PROBABILITY DILUTION

摘要

In the last several years the concept of “Probability Dilution” or “Dilution of Probability” has been presented in the literature on satellite and orbital debris collision risk analysis. “Probability Dilution” proposes a quality criterion for accepting or rejecting a probability of collision risk estimate on the basis of where the probability estimate occurs with respect to the estimated maximum probability during the close approach event. In this paper evidence will be offered for why this criterion has no supportable basis. The evidence presented will consist of logical arguments supported by numerical examples and figures.