Application of time-series autoregressive integrated moving average model in predicting the epidemic situation of newcastle disease

摘要

Objective: The outbreak of animal infectious diseases directly affects the economic benefits of livestock and poultry production, and even threatens the safety of human life. And due to the specificity of livestock and poultry production, the infectious diseases will be difficult to control by medical treatment means when outbreak in groups. Knowing the outbreak and development of infectious diseases as early as possible is the key to control the eradication of the epidemic. Nowadays, people have studied many methods for disease forecasting and early warning, and in this study, the mathematical model was established for predicting the occurrence of Newcastle disease, evaluation of mathematical model of animal disease on the accuracy of the forecasts. Method: The present study fitted an ARIMA model based on the monthly incidence of Newcastle disease collected from the Veterinary bulletin in two areas (A and B) from Jan. 2000 to Dec. 2007. The spss software was used to set up time series model which was applied to predict the incidence of Newcastle disease from Jan. to Dec. 2008 in above areas and validated by comparing with the actual incidence. Results: The result showed the predicted incidence of ARIMA model was consistent with the actual incidence of Newcastle disease, which indicated the constructed ARIMA model can be applied to predict the incidence of Newcastle disease so as to supply the reliable reference for this disease in future.