A Multidisciplinary Approach to Model Long-Term Investments in Electricity Generation: Combining System Dynamics, Credit Risk Theory and Game Theory

摘要

This paper provides a new multidisciplinary approach to model long-term planning of electricity generation. The aim of this approach is to improve several aspects of System-Dynamics based models in the literature in terms of companies' differentiation in imperfect markets. To do this, System Dynamics is combined with credit risk theory and game theory. Particularly, this paper presents in detail the part of the model which focuses on companies' differentiation when calculating the expected profitability of possible new investments. This approach can be used as a tool to analyse long-term dynamics of electricity markets and the way the new generation capacity enters into these markets under different hypothesis of companies' strategies and regulatory policies. A case study based in the Spanish market to show the potential of this approach is presented.