Building Default Predicting Model on Firm's Short-term Loan Data with Artificial Neural Network - Considering Qualitative Indexes and Misclassification Costs

摘要

to date, using model to predict whether firmȁ9;s default is still a problem. It presents: a. most model using pairwise pattern; b. lack of qualitative indexes that affect firmȁ9;s defau c. asymmetric between normal firmȁ9;s misclassification costs and default firmȁ9;s. So, introducing qualitative indexes, using all samples and considering misclassification costs, this paper builds an artificial neural network model on short-term-loan data. Though training, validating and testing, itȁ9;s performance is good.