Applications of modeling and simulations with probabilistic method to predict reliability at high confidence level

摘要

In this paper a probabilistic reliability analysis approach at high confidence level is presented that employs the modeling and simulations techniques. This not only reduces the cost of testing, but also predicts the physics-of-failures, response of system and quantifies the uncertainty in loading environment. Probabilistic sensitivities may be determined to assess the relative importance of each of the random variables on the probabilistic response. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is illustrated with a probabilistic wear-out model for dry sliding wear in rubber components using structural reliability methods. A time-dependent structural reliability model is adapted to calculate the probability of wear-out. Degradation of material in time is considered by properly accounting for a degradation model in the limit-state function. Relative impact each underlying variable on life is determined.