Forecasting the effect of PTP policy on changes of travel patterns with ordered logit model

摘要

Public Transport Priority (PTP) is adopted as basic transport policy in many metropolitan cities, especially like Beijing, with great number of population and rapid urban economic development. This study mainly discusses how PTP measures affect travelers' behavior, what type and levels of PTP measures increase the acceptance of public travel modes, and how PTP measures take a positive effect in Beijing city. Through the analysis by an ordered logit model, it is revealed that respondents with lower incomes are more likely to use public travel modes instead of paying comparatively high car-costs. Moreover, it is also found that respondents able to obtain transport subsidies are less likely to take bus, subway and so on. About the transport service attributes of the proposed logit model, it is clarified that travel time is the most important consideration for travelers and, in contrast, prices of tickets are usually ignored. Based on the study of the newly developed ordered logit model and the development plan of public transport service in near future published by Beijing Municipal Committee of Communication, it can be first concluded that if the average in-vehicle time of public travel models decreases from 42.6 minutes to 32 minutes, about 385.8 thousand trips by private car everyday will shift to public transport sector. At the same time, given about 3.6 minutes' decrease of average public travel time for waiting and transfer, around 164.2 thousand trips by private car will be eliminated.