Research on regional landscape patch transition probability modeling and simulation

摘要

Combining the character of landscape and the theory of Markov chain, this paper inferred the forecast model of fuzzy weight Markov chain. The new model which was called FWMC to predict the future value of cultivated land demand in land use planning. Factors to consider in driving conditions was used in this model, the real response to landscape pattern change position using a weighted Markov transfer based on prior forecast model. This developed the predictable method of Markov chain and widened the practice range. Finally, the rate of change of landscaper cover was simulated by using existing data. The author applied GIS technology and mathematics model to calculate the change of Jiangsu' landscape for many years. The results provided the scientific basis for the development of sustainable economy. And these showed that the new method was more scientific and practical than traditional predictive models.