Greenhouse effects on the world agriculture—based on computable general equilibrium model analysis

摘要

Climate is the primary determinant of agricultural productivity. The concentration of greenhouse gases is increasing. The effects of greenhouse due to green-house gases will increase the average temperature on the earth. Global warming from the greenhouse effects will influence agriculture significantly. This research uses a global model of CGE-GTAP to explore the possible economic effects of global warming on agriculture. High latitude regions will benefit,and low latitude regions will be harmed. The center of the North American wheat exports will be turned from USA to Canada. China will replace ASEAN and become the main rice exporter. Because agriculture still takes very big proportion of employment and GDP, developing countries will suffer great negative impact.