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The Dynamic Demand Model of China's Foreign Exchange Reserves

机译:中国外汇储备的动态需求模型

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this paper studies the demand for China''s foreign exchange reserves. Previous research using econometric models in this area has a common problem that demand was replaced by the actual holdings, namely, assuming foreign exchange reserves achieve equilibrium at any time. In order to avoid the problem, the current study builds a dynamic demand model of China''s foreign exchange reserves by the method of disequilibrium. Through the empirical analysis using the data from 1978 to 2007, we find that the scale of China''s foreign exchange reserves are determined by gross domestic product (GDP), the dependence on foreign trade and investment rate. GDP and the dependence on foreign trade have a positive impact on China''s foreign exchange reserves while investment rate has a negative impact. Furthermore, according to the dynamic demand model, we estimate the speed of the dynamic adjustment of China''s foreign exchange reserves.
机译:本文研究了中国外汇储备的需求。先前在该领域使用计量经济学模型进行的研究存在一个普遍的问题,即需求被实际持有量所替代,即假设外汇储备在任何时候都达到平衡。为了避免这一问题,本研究采用不均衡的方法建立了中国外汇储备的动态需求模型。通过使用1978年至2007年的数据进行实证分析,我们发现中国的外汇储备规模取决于国内生产总值,对外贸的依赖程度和投资率。 GDP和对外贸的依赖对中国的外汇储备有积极影响,而投资率则有不利影响。此外,根据动态需求模型,我们估计了中国外汇储备动态调整的速度。

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