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Application of Neural Network-based Combining Forecasting Model Optimized by Ant Colony In Power Load Forecasting

机译:蚁群优化的神经网络组合预测模型在电力负荷预测中的应用

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For non-linear and gray of power load forecasting, this paper proposed a new combining forecasting model. First optimize the parameters of the GM(1, 1, ¿) forecasting model with ant colony algorithm, and predict a set of load values; then predict another set of load values with Auto-regressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA). The forecasting results of ant colony gray model and ARIMA model were put as the input of RBF neural network to be forecast and trained. Therefore, an RBF neural network-based combining forecasting model was built. The results show that the combining model combines the advantages of different methods, and greatly improves the accuracy of load forecasting.
机译:针对电力负荷的非线性和灰色预测,提出了一种新的组合预测模型。首先使用蚁群算法优化GM(1,1,Â)预测模型的参数,并预测一组载荷值;然后使用自回归综合移动平均模型(ARIMA)预测另一组载荷值。将蚁群灰色模型和ARIMA模型的预测结果作为RBF神经网络的输入进行预测和训练。因此,建立了基于RBF神经网络的组合预测模型。结果表明,该组合模型结合了各种方法的优点,大大提高了负荷预测的准确性。

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