Impact of supply and demand on theprice development of phosphate (fertilizer)

摘要

In this paper the development of the phosphate price is investigated.The historical price development is analyzed and a prospect to the future developmentis given.Generally the price is determined by the supply and demand situation. The phosphatereserves minable for the production of fertilizer are diminishing in quality and quantity. Themining of deeper soil layers leads to higher production costs and the phosphate rock isincreasingly contaminated with heavy metals like cadmium and uranium. Consequently thequantity of phosphate economically minable at actual costs is decreasing. Additionallysubstantial costs for environment protection and transportation increase the phosphateprice. Since 2007 the supply situation is tight due to production capacity shortage. For thisreason the phosphate price increased rapidly. New mines and processing plants aresupposed to be in operation by 2012. Most of the reserves are located in Africa and inthe Middle East. Asian Countries, particularly India, are investing in processing plantsto satisfy their increasing demand. The demand for phosphate is increasing due topopulation growth and the necessity of nurturing that population. The growth of energyplants for the production of agro-fuels is another factor that increases the phosphatedemand. Since the development of agro-fuel production is difficult to predict, twoscenarios – business as usual and increased agrofuel production – are distinguished.The phosphate price estimated for 2030 is about US$ 100 and 120 per tonne respectivelyin both scenarios.