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FUZZY RISK ANALYSIS FOR THE URBAN BURIED GAS PIPELINE

机译:城市埋地燃气管道的模糊风险分析

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Based on the statistical analysis from a great deal of failure cases, generally, the failure causes of buried pipeline can be classified into four factors, namely, third-party damage, erosion-corrosion damage, design error, and incorrect operation. The factors influencing the failure of pipeline are complicated, varied and fuzzy. Especially, the influence factors of third-party damage of buried pipeline are of the character of fuzziness, which are difficult to express with the accurate mathematic models. In this paper the failure factors of buried gas pipeline are firstly analyzed by fault tree analysis (FTA) method. Then the failure likelihood and failure consequence, two parts of the risk, are evaluated with fuzzy comprehensive assessment method respectively. Finally, the in-service risk of the buried gas pipeline for a certain city is expressed by the risk matrix, which is established with the failure likelihood as vertical ordinate and the failure consequence as horizontal ordinate. It is concluded that there are two pipeline units belong to High risk category, 24 pipeline units belong to Medium-High risk category, 160 pipeline units belong to Medium risk category, and 392 pipeline units belong to Low risk category.
机译:基于大量故障案例的统计分析,一般来说,地下管线的故障原因可分为第三方破坏,腐蚀腐蚀破坏,设计错误和操作不当四个因素。影响管道故障的因素复杂,多变,模糊。尤其是埋地管道第三方破坏的影响因素具有模糊性,很难用精确的数学模型来表达。本文首先通过故障树分析法(FTA)分析了地下燃气管道的破坏因素。然后分别采用模糊综合评判法对风险的两个部分-失败可能性和失败后果进行了评估。最后,用风险矩阵来表示某城市的地下燃气管道的运行中风险,该矩阵是将故障可能性作为垂直纵坐标,将故障后果作为水平纵坐标建立的。结论:高风险类别有两个管道单元,中高风险类别有24个管道单元,中风险类别有160个管道单元,低风险类别有392个管道单元。

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