Prediction of the Content of 238U in Soil near Uranium Mine Exhaust Outlet Based on Grey Prediction Theory

摘要

In order to predict the content of 238U in soil near uranium mine exhaust outlet, a prediction model based on grey prediction theory is set up by analyzing the measuring contents of 238U in soil monitoring point near a uranium mine exhaust outlet from 2001 to 2006 in China. The degree of coefficient tested is reasonable, the residual error is small enough to pass the verifying, and the grade of precision for prediction model is grade. Ⅰ The content of 238U in 2007 is also predicted based on the model and the residual error is 4.5388%. The contrast curve of original data and the predicted results which provide the technology guide and the practical value for management and supervising soil radioactive pollution indicate the grey prediction model has a good fitness and could be used to predict the content of 238U in soil near uranium mine exhaust outlet with high prediction precision in short-term time series.