Risk Analysis of Construction Schedule Based on PERT and MC Simulation

摘要

In a construction project where duration truly equals money, the management of duration is critical, thus predicting the likelihood of duration may play a key role towards project success. On the basis of the researches of other scholars, this paper analyzed the traditional probability analysis method for duration risk in program evaluation and review technique(PERT). On basis of that it simulates the projectȁ9; s duration and analyzes the risk of construction schedule by Monte Carlo simulation(MCS) method. Monte Carlo method was used to simulate the duration for each activity and the overall project to acurately determine the completion probability of the project under considering of the changeability and randomness of duration for each activity. The result shows that the MCS method is convenient, effective and efficient. It provides scientific basis for project decision-making and supports the decider powerfully.