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The Grey Relative Analysis of Impacts of Urbanization ----A Case Study on China’s Shandong Province

机译:城市化影响的灰色关联分析-以中国山东省为例

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The factors impacting the process of urbanization is always the focus of advancing front of researching the problem of urbanization. This paper make an empirical study on the process of urbanization in Shandong. We establish the evaluated indices system. Utilizing the Grey Relative Analysis to analyze the relations between urbanization and employment, construction, economic development, social development during 2000-2007 in Shandong province, using the granger causality to test the relative analysis results according the panel-data from 1993-2007 in Shandong, We demonstrate that the Proportion of Employment in Tertiary Industry and Second Industry have strong relations with the Level of Urbanization, and the City’s Infrastructure Construction and Public Services is relative with the level of urbanization secondly high too. Then using the granger test, we find that the Tertiary and Second Industry has an interacting relations with Urbanization both cause and effect, and the cointegration relation is existing between the Proportion of Employment in Tertiary Industry, and the Level of Urbanization to directly manifest that the long-run equilibrium existing between Tertiary and Urbanization. thus, Shandong should adopt a more vigorous policy to release the restriction of urbanization further in order to fostering the development of Tertiary Industry and the Employment from labor flowing to urban, simultaneously government should increase the construction of infrastructure and public service to satisfy the needs of labor flowing absorbed by the development of Tertiary and Second Industry, especially from the Tertiary Industry. And simultaneously the huge flowing labor should foster the development of Tertiary Industry as an counteracting force. Through the empirical study, we insist the urbanization is the powerful key coupling point forcing the development of Urban Economy and the motivation pulling the domestic goods demand.
机译:影响城市化进程的因素一直是城市化问题研究前沿的重点。本文对山东城市化进程进行了实证研究。建立评价指标体系。用灰色关联分析法分析山东省2000-2007年城市化与就业,建筑,经济发展,社会发展之间的关系,利用格兰杰因果关系检验山东省1993-2007年面板数据的相对分析结果。 ,我们证明第三产业和第二产业的就业比例与城市化水平有密切关系,而城市的基础设施建设和公共服务与城市化水平也相对较高。然后通过格兰杰检验发现第三产业和第二产业与城市化具有因果关系,二者之间存在协整关系,第三产业的就业比例与城市化水平之间存在协整关系。第三产业与城市化之间存在长期的平衡。因此,山东应采取更加有力的政策进一步释放对城市化的限制,以促进第三产业和从劳动力向城市流动的就业的发展,同时政府应加大基础设施和公共服务的建设,以满足人口的需求。第三产业,特别是第三产业的发展吸收了劳动力流动。同时,巨大的流动劳动力应作为反作用力量促进第三产业的发展。通过实证研究,我们认为城市化是推动城市经济发展的强大关键耦合点,也是拉动国内商品需求的动力。

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