The research of coalbed methane economic assessment method involved in uncertainty parameters

摘要

One of basic tasks of coalbed methane commercial exploration is CBM economic assessment, in which some uncertainty parameters are included. The uncertainty parameters cause the assessment result is varied, which leads to potential risk of CBM commercial exploration. In the traditional CBM economic assessment, it is hard to describe the risk of CBM commercial exploration and explain the variable characters of the uncertainty parameters. Monte-Carlo Method can analyse the risk of CBM commercial exploration and avoid using a constant instead of the variability. So Monte-Carlo method is applied in CBM economic assessment which includes three steps. Firstly, the index system of CBM economic assessment is created and the weight of index is obtained by analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Secondly, by the annual revenue model example, the processes and steps of Monte-Carlo method are described. Thirdly, the major steps of the algorithm realization of Monte Carlo algorithm for CBM economic assessment are listed.