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Development of a methodology for forecasting electricity-price series to improve Demand Response Initiatives

机译:开发一种预测电价序列的方法,以改善需求响应计划

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The main objective of electricity regulators when establishing electricity markets is to decrease the cost of electricity through competition. However, this scenario can not be achieved without the full participation of the electricity demand. The aim of this paper is to propose a procedure, through the detection of electricity-price patterns based on what happened in the energy markets the previous day, which could help customers and aggregators to take decisions in Electricity Markets. In this way, the capacity of a methodology (Statistical Ward's Linkage) to classify and forecast high electricity market prices is analyzed. Besides, some price-patterns were found in the abovementioned clusters. The knowledge contained within these patterns supplies customers with market-based information on which to focus its energy use decision to improve the usefulness of Demand Response Initiatives.
机译:电力监管机构在建立电力市场时的主要目标是通过竞争降低电力成本。但是,如果没有电力需求的充分参与,就无法实现这种情况。本文的目的是通过基于前一天能源市场中发生的事情来检测电价模式,从而提出一个程序,该程序可以帮助客户和聚合商在电力市场中做出决策。这样,分析了一种方法(统计沃德联动)对电力市场高价格进行分类和预测的能力。此外,在上述集群中发现了一些价格模式。这些模式中包含的知识为客户提供了基于市场的信息,以其为基础的能源使用决策可以提高需求响应计划的实用性。

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