The aviation industry has experienced sustained growth since its inception resulting in anincrease in air pollutant emissions. Exposure to particulate matter less than 2.5 mm in size(PM2.5) has been linked to respiratory health problems because it penetrates deepest into humanlungs. We focused on the concentrations of two primary aerosols (I.e., elemental carbon andcrustal material) and four secondary aerosol species (I.e., sulfate, nitrate, ammonium and organiccarbon) as they relate to the formation of total PM2.5. There were three goals of this research:evaluate differences in total PM2.5 concentrations as (1) aviation emissions varied, (2)meteorological conditions varied, and (3) the resulting effects on human health. The CommunityMultiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was used to simulate the effects of increasing ordecreasing aviation emissions from current levels. Randomly generated multiplicative factorswere applied to current aviation emissions, resulting in twentyfiveCMAQ simulationsrepresenting increases or decreases in aviation activities. Aviation emissions were varied andused as inputs to CMAQ. A sensitivity analysis was performed for these twentyfivesimulationsto assess the effects of changes in aviationassociatedgroundlevelemissions and meteorologyon total PM2.5 concentrations. Meteorological effects play a larger role in total PM2.5concentrations than do variations in aviation emissions. For example, while holding the otherthree secondary aerosol emissions at current levels, a 342% increase in SO4 emissions caused a2.06% increase in SO4 secondary aerosol concentration and a 1.2% increase in total PM2.5concentrations over current aviation activities. In contrast, changes in relative humidity fromwinter to summer lead to an 18.9% decrease in total PM2.5 concentrations. Here, we discuss theresults of these analyses and examine the potential effects of changes in aviation emission onhuman health in the western United States.
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