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Research on the Influence of Loans Supply on Real Estate Market Based on SVAR Model

机译:基于SVAR模型的贷款供给对房地产市场的影响研究

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Since the reform of house monetarization in 1998 in China, Chinese real estate investment and real estate price have been increasing very fast by the end of 2008. In China real estate industry, a pillar industry and a capital intensive industry, has closed relation with the quota of real estate credit supply. By SVAR model this paper uses monthly data of 1999-2008 to test the influence of real estate credit on real estate market. The result shows: the response from real estate investment to credit impact is like parabola which appears to have a decline trend to 0 after an initial ascent; but the response from real estate sale price is a negative trend after an initial positive trend. It is suggested that in the overheating real estate market, tight monetary policy can have a substantial action on restrict real estate supply and demand in short term, but the efficacy of credit policy has asymmetry in supply and demand. So this paper suggests when the real estate market is full of speculation with a great pressure of real estate price soaring up, the center bank can use credit policy together with tax and land policies to control short-term real estate market.
机译:自从1998年中国房屋货币化改革以来,到2008年底,中国房地产投资和房地产价格一直在飞速增长。在中国房地产业中,支柱产业和资本密集型产业与房地产业有着紧密的联系。房地产信贷供应额度。通过SVAR模型,本文使用1999-2008年的月度数据来检验房地产信贷对房地产市场的影响。结果表明:房地产投资对信贷影响的反应就像抛物线,抛物线在初始上升后似乎下降到0。但是房地产销售价格的响应是在最初出现积极趋势之后的消极趋势。建议在过热的房地产市场中,紧缩的货币政策可以在短期内对限制房地产的供需起到实质性的作用,但信贷政策的有效性在供求关系中是不对称的。因此,本文建议,当房地产市场充满投机行为而房地产价格飙升的巨大压力时,央行可以结合信贷政策,税收和土地政策来控制短期房地产市场。

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