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The analysis of China's macro-economy with grey dynamic model in 30 years of reform and opening up

机译:改革开放30年中国宏观经济的灰色动态模型分析

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Macro-economic system is a multi-factor, multi-level, multi-aim typical grey system possessed of indefinite. It's running process is a grey dynamic one composed of many relations of many complex structures and interlaced functions. By using the grey systematic theory model, this paper studies two major problems in China's macro-economic system during the reform and opening up. Firstly, it obtains the relational grades between the gross domestic product (GDP) and the three industries (primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry), the productive values of the three industries and their internal industries according to the grey dynamic relation analysis. It also builds the industrial related trees of China's macro-economy in each ¿Five-Year Plan¿ period. Secondly, it analyzes the economic cycle of China since 1990s and forecasts the economic scale for the next cycle through GM (1, 1) model and the analysis of the residual error. Moreover, it analyzes the dynamic change of China's macro-economy, the development state and existing problems, meanwhile, counter-measures and suggestions are put forward to provide a scientific basis for China's macro-economic adjustment and the further economic growth.
机译:宏观经济系统是一个具有不确定性的多因素,多层次,多目标的典型灰色系统。它的运行过程是一个灰色的动态过程,由许多复杂结构的相互关系和交织的功能组成。本文运用灰色系统理论模型,研究了改革开放以来中国宏观经济体制的两个主要问题。首先,通过灰色动态关系分析,得出了国内生产总值与第三产业(第一产业,第二产业和第三产业)之间的关系等级,这三个产业及其内部产业的生产价值。它还在每个ƒƒâ€œ五年计划Ã期间,构建了与中国宏观经济相关的产业树。其次,通过GM(1,1)模型和残差分析,对中国自1990年代以来的经济周期进行了分析,并预测了下一周期的经济规模。此外,本文分析了中国宏观经济的动态变化,发展状况和存在的问题,同时提出了对策和建议,为中国宏观经济的调整和经济的进一步增长提供科学依据。

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