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A multivariate time series clustering approach for crime trends prediction

机译:预测犯罪趋势的多元时间序列聚类方法

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In recent past, there is an increased interest in time series clustering research, particularly for finding useful similar trends in multivariate time series in various applied areas such as environmental research, finance, and crime. Clustering multivariate time series has potential for analyzing large volume of crime data at different time points as law enforcement agencies are interested in finding crime trends of various police administration units such as states, districts and police stations so that future occurrences of similar incidents can be overcome. Most of the traditional time series clustering algorithms deals with only univariate time series data and for clustering high dimensional data, it has to be transformed into single dimension using a dimension reduction technique. The conventional time series clustering techniques do not provide desired results for crime data set, since crime data is high dimensional and consists of various crime types with different weightage. In this paper, a novel approach based on dynamic time wrapping and parametric Minkowski model has been proposed to find similar crime trends among various crime sequences of different crime locations and subsequently use this information for future crime trends prediction. Analysis on Indian crime records show that the proposed technique generally outperforms the existing techniques in clustering of such multivariate time series data.
机译:最近,人们对时间序列聚类研究越来越感兴趣,尤其是在环境研究,金融和犯罪等各种应用领域中,在多元时间序列中找到有用的相似趋势。聚类多元时间序列有潜力分析不同时间点的大量犯罪数据,因为执法机构对发现各州,地区和警察局等各种警察管理部门的犯罪趋势感兴趣,因此可以避免将来发生类似事件。大多数传统的时间序列聚类算法仅处理单变量时间序列数据,并且对于聚类高维数据,必须使用降维技术将其转换为单维。传统的时间序列聚类技术不能为犯罪数据集提供理想的结果,因为犯罪数据是高维的,并且由具有不同权重的各种犯罪类型组成。本文提出了一种基于动态时间包裹和参数Minkowski模型的新颖方法,可以在不同犯罪地点的各种犯罪序列之间找到相似的犯罪趋势,然后将该信息用于未来的犯罪趋势预测。对印度犯罪记录的分析表明,在对此类多元时间序列数据进行聚类分析时,所提出的技术通常优于现有技术。

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