MODELLING THE PERFORMANCE OF DIFFERENT WHEAT VARIETIES UNDER CHANGED CLIMATETOWARDS BETTER ADAPTATION

摘要

Continued global warming and associated changes in regional rainfall patterns have raised concerns for the sustainability of many agricultural industries in Australia and the World. Examining adaptation options to cope with changed regional climate conditions have often involved simulating the mitigating effects of management interventions e. G.Shifting planting windows ,planting densities and row configurations. Less emphasis has been placed on examining the impact of changing crop varieties and crop types. In this study, the performance of five wheat varieties ( Hartog, Janz, Sunco, Batavia, and Sunbrook) were examined under historical climate and derived climate change scenarios for 2 050 ([CO2] = 570ppm, T + 2.3°C,P - 6. 95%) and 2 070 ( ECO2 ] = 720ppm, T + 3.8°C, P - 9.75% ) at Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia. The simulation results confirmed that the impacts of the projected climate change on yields were strongly varietydependent. Amongst the five wheat varieties examined,the mid-maturing varieties Janz and Sunco performed best under historical climate, with average yields of 4. 5t/ha. The average yield of other varieties ranged from 4. 0 ～ 4.4t/ha. Under the 2050 climate change scenario, 0. 9%, 1.4%, 8.9% and 7.6% yield increases were simulated for the Janz,Sunco, Batavia and Sunbrook varieties, but 2.2% yield decrease for the early maturing Hartog.Simulated yields under 2070 climate conditions declined for the Hartog, Janz, and Sunco varieties by 11.8% ,5.7% and 4. 6% ,but increased for two late maturing varieties namely Batavia and Sunbrook by 7. 1% and 8.8% respectively. The results of this study demonstrate that the impacts of climate change can be offset through site-specific varietal changes